Operation Management | Forecasting

MGT 320: Weekly Assessment- 1 (10%)                                       (Spring 2020)

Section:____________                                                                                   Date:_____________

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  1. Following table shows the monthly sales of cars at a dealership:
Month Number of cars Sold Forecast using Naïve Error Forecast using 3 period moving average Error
1 79        
2 79        
3 86        
4 93        
5 101        
6 107        
7 102        

Answer the following questions based on the data given above. Show your calculations.


  1. What is the expected sales for the 8th month based on 3 period moving average? (15 Points)



  1. What is the expected sales for the 8th month based on naïve approach? (10 Points)








  1. Which of the above two forecasting method is better based on MAD? (25 Points)









  1. There are various forecasting methods available as discussed in Chapter-3, what information would you consider before you select a particular forecasting method? How would you decide on a particular forecasting method for a given dataset from among several forecasting alternatives? (50 Point)



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