United States Congress M3W

The Contemporary Congress-Ch. 4
Congress Reconsidered-Ch. 3-5

Members of the 114th Congress pose in the Hoiuse of Representatives chamber
Official photo of the 114th United States Congress, 17 July 2013 by Speaker.gov (Public Domain).
This assignment asks you to think about and consider why a candidate for the House of Representatives or the Senate wins or loses, using readings and resources for this module as the basis for an explanation and analysis. Your report should be approx. 6-7 pages in length and include the information and data, as directed below.

Media in the U.S. cover presidential elections extensively and, one could add, exhaustively, while coverage of midterm elections varies by comparison. In the 2020 campaign, there were 435 elections for the House and 35 for the Senate – 470 seats in the Congress in total. While the number of House and Senate races is quite large, the actual number of truly competitive races, sometimes referred to as “battleground races,” is usually modest. Estimation of competitive races varies slightly based on the source; for our purposes, we will use Ballotpedia’s estimate of battleground races in the 2020 election.

According to Ballotpedia, in 2020 there were 16 battleground races for the Senate and 41 for the House – i.e. 45.7% of Senate and only 9.4% of House elections were highly competitive. Readings for this module identify a number of factors contributing to competitive versus “safe” seats, especially in the House.

Using readings and resources for this module and the 2020 election data and information detailed below, your report will analyze and explain the winners and losers in House and Senate battleground races. The authors of several selections in our readings suggest that partisan polarization is a major determinant factor in recent congressional elections. However, our readings also make a strong case that other factors can and do affect who wins and who loses in congressional elections.

Take a position on the winners and losers in your report. Be sure to consider at least 2-3 factors in addition to partisan polarization in explaining the outcomes of specific battleground races, as indicated below. Your report has two parts: 1) an examination and analysis of specified elections and 2) summary information about the elections. You may present the information that addresses the data and questions below in a narrative discussion about each election, create a table to provide specific details, or simply incorporate details about each of the races in your report.

Use only the specified online resources to gather information about winners and losers in specific races and about your representative, as well. However, information and data from Congress.gov about incumbents and Census Bureau data about voting may also be used.

Use data that you gather from Ballotpedia and Open Secrets only about the winner and loser in two of the following battleground races (one from the House and one from the Senate):

House race in California’s 21st district
House race in Iowa’s 1st district
House race in Texas’s 21st district
Senate race in Georgia (either one)
Senate race in Maine
Senate race in Colorado

In addition to profiling the winners and losers, you must include the following:
For House battleground races, characteristics of the legislative district, including partisanship, changes in demographics, and related information.
The “war chest” for each winner and loser – how much money did the candidates collect and spend leading up to the election?
What support, if any, did the incumbent receive from House or Senate campaign committees?

Identify financial contributions to battleground candidates from businesses and other organized interests. List the name and total contribution of one contributor from each of the following categories of contributors:
an industry/business or trade group
an advocacy/organized interest group

Be sure to answer the following questions about contributors:
Did the industry/business, trade group, and organized interest group contribute to both candidates?
Did the incumbent serve on a committee, subcommittee, or participate in a caucus in the House or Senate related to the above interests?

Examine information about voter participation for the battleground races and compare the voter turnout to national voter participation rates in 2020, including a) the number of registered voters and the percentage of registered voters who voted b) the number of eligible voters (citizens over 18 years of age) and c) the percentage of the eligible population that voted. At the end of your analysis of voter participation, therefore, your report will show results for one House battleground race and one Senate battleground races in comparison to national voter participation rates in the 2020 elections.

ANSWER

United States Congress M3W

Introduction

Congressional elections are often less competitive since eighty percent of the incumbent members of the United States congress are re-elected. An open seat in the congress leads to both parties spending more resources and time in an attempt to win it. The House of Representative members are elected after every two years while the members of the senate are elected after six years (Dodd, 2012). Most of the members of the House of Representatives have had successful campaigns and strategies for running reelection campaigns. This paper will focus on why candidates for the House of Representatives win or lose an election.

Factors that Influence Winning or Losing in Congressional Elections

There are many factors that contribute to whether a candidate for the House of Representatives or the Senate wins or loses an election. Some of these factors include the, partisanship, popularity of the candidate, the amount of money the candidate has raised for their campaign, and how well the candidate has performed in debates.

Partisan Polarization

Partisan polarization is the main reason why a candidate for the House of Representatives or the Senate wins or loses. This is because voters usually vote along party lines, and candidates need to appeal to their respective parties in order to get nominated (Jacobson & Carson, 2019).

Party Support

In order to win an election, a candidate must first gain the support of their party. The candidate must then campaign hard to reach as many voters as possible. It is important for the candidate to be able to articulate their positions on the issues in a way that resonates with the voters. The candidate must also be able to raise enough money to fund their campaign. Additionally, the candidate must perform well in debates in order to gain the support of undecided voters.

Funding

In addition, campaign finance plays a role in determining who wins or loses, as candidates who are able to raise more money are often able to reach more voters and run more effective campaigns. Candidates who are endorsed by major political parties or other interest groups also tend to have an advantage, as they have access to more resources (Jacobson & Carson, 2019).

Media

The media also plays a role in elections, as they can help to shape public opinion about the candidates. Receiving more attention from the media can help a candidate to become more well-known, which can in turn lead to more support from voters. Ideally, the media should provide unbiased information about the candidates so that voters can make informed decisions, but in reality, the media often focuses on negative aspects of campaigns and rarely provides in-depth coverage of policy issues (Jacobson & Carson, 2019). For example, if a candidate is always shown in a positive light, people may be more likely to vote for him or her. On the other hand, if a candidate is shown in a negative light, people may be less likely to vote for him or her.

Special interest groups

Special interest groups can have a big impact on elections. . Often, candidates who are more popular or who have more support from special interest groups are more likely to win because they are able to get more people to vote. These groups often support candidates who share their views on issues like taxes, abortion, gun control, or the environment. They may also work to defeat candidates who they feel are opposed to their interests. Special interest groups often run ads and hold rallies to try to get people to vote for their favored candidates.

The Winners and Losers in House and Senate Battleground Races

Congressional elections centers on electorate collective motivations and partisan balance of seats. Most congressional elections identify with dominant political parties- the Democrats and the Republicans (Herrnson, Panagopoulos & Bailey, 2019). This identification offers the voters with an option to vote for their favored party unless they voters have information from the current campaign that gives them a reason to defect from voting for their favorite party. If one party has more enthusiastic voters, they are more likely to win. The next most important factor is money. Candidates who have raised more money tend to do better than those who have raised less. The third most important factor is the strength of the candidate’s campaign organization. A well-run campaign can make up for a lot of other deficiencies. Relatively, the candidate’s performance in debates can be important, especially in close races.

House Race in California’s 21st district

In the House of Representatives, each state is represented by one representative. The 21st district in California has a representative from the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. In order to win the seat, a candidate needs to receive more votes than the other candidates.

The campaign for the 21st district was very close. The incumbent representative, David Valadao, was a Republican. The challenger, T.J. Cox, was a Democrat. In the end, David Valadao won by just over 2,000 votes. There are many factors that can influence how a candidate wins or loses an election. One factor is the party affiliation of the candidates. In this case, both candidates were from different parties. The Republican Party has been traditionally strong in the 21st district. This may have helped David Valadao to win the election.

Another factor that can influence the outcome of an election is the amount of money that each candidate raises. In this case, T.J. Cox raised more money than David Valadao (Ballotpedia, 2020). This may have influenced the results of the election. Another factor that can influence the outcome of an election is the endorsements that each candidate receives. In this case, David Valadao received endorsements from several major newspapers in the district. This may have helped him to win the election. Interest groups can also play a role in determining the outcome of an election. For example, if there is a powerful interest group that is supporting a particular candidate, this can help them to win the election. In this case, it is possible that the Valdao gained support from the National Republican Congressional commute Young Guns program.

Senate Race in Georgia

The Senate race in Georgia was a very close one, with both candidates receiving a lot of support from their respective parties. In the end, it was the Republican candidate, David Perdue, who won the election by a narrow margin. One factor that may have helped him to win is the fact that he had the support of several high-profile Republican senators, including Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham. This may have given him a boost in the polls and helped him to win the election.

In the case of the Senate race in Georgia, there were a number of factors that may have influenced the outcome. The issue of race may have played a role in the outcome of the Senate race in Georgia. Some pundits have speculated that the fact that both candidates are white may have helped Perdue to win support from white voters who may have been reluctant to vote for a black candidate.

It is also worth noting that the Democratic Party made significant gains in the House of Representatives in the 2014 midterm elections. This may have helped to increase turnout among Democratic voters and may have been a factor in Nunn’s loss. Another factor that may have played a role is the amount of money each candidate had to spend leading up to the election. The Republican candidate, David Perdue, outspent the Democratic candidate, Michelle Nunn, by nearly $5 million dollars (Ballotpedia, 2020). This may have given him an edge in terms of advertising and name recognition.

Another factor that may have influenced the outcome of the Senate race in Georgia is voter turnout. Historically, Republican candidates have had an advantage in terms of voter turnout. This may have been a factor in David Perdue’s victory.

In Senate race in Georgia, the incumbent Republican candidate, David Perdue, received support from the National Republican Senatorial Committee. This committee is responsible for electing Republicans to the Senate. The committee spent about $3 million on ads to support Perdue’s campaign. The Democrats had a similar committee, but it did not spend nearly as much money on ads for Ossoff. This may have been a factor in Perdue’s victory.

Businesses and other organized interests made financial contributions to both Perdue and Ossoff. However, Perdue received more contributions from businesses than Ossoff. This may have been because businesses believe that Perdue is more likely to support their interests in the Senate. For instance, the National Rifle Association (NRA) spent more money on ads supporting Perdue than Ossoff. The NRA is a powerful interest group that lobbies for gun rights.

Voter Participation

Voter participation in the battleground races was high, with turnout exceeding national voter participation rates. In Georgia, for example, voter turnout was 75% in the presidential election, compared to 66.6% nationally.  In Georgia, over 5 million people were registered to vote in the 2020 presidential election. Of those registered voters, 75% cast a ballot (Ballotpedia, 2020). In comparison, 66.6% of eligible voters nationally participated in the election. When comparing turnout rates, it is important to consider the number of eligible voters in each state. In Georgia, there are approximately 7.5 million people over the age of 18. This means that the turnout rate for eligible voters in Georgia was approximately 75%. There are a number of factors that can impact voter turnout rates. One major factor is the competitiveness of the race. In a close race, voters may be more likely to turn out to make sure their candidate wins. Voter registration procedures can also impact turnout rates. If it is difficult to register to vote, fewer people may be able to participate.

In California’s 21st district, voter turnout was high in the battleground races. However, national voter participation rates were higher in 2020. Nevertheless, voter turnout in the 21st district was still high relative to other districts in the state. California’s 21st district had a higher voter turnout than the national average in 2020. This is likely due to the fact that the district is highly competitive and has a large number of registered voters. The district also has a high number of people who are politically active and engaged. The number of registered voters in the 21st district decreased from 759, 737 in 2018 to 749,408 in 2020. Therefore percentage of registered voters who voted also decreased from 73.3% in 2018 to 72.4% in 2020 (Ballotpedia, 2020). The number of eligible voters (citizens over 18 years of age) in the 21st district increased from 604,530 in 2018 to 611,507 in 2020. However, the percentage of the eligible population that voted decreased from 62.6% in 2018 to 61.4% in 2020. In conclusion, voter turnout decreased from 2018 to 2020 in the 21st district of California. This is likely due to the decrease in registered voters as well as the increase in the eligible voter population.

Conclusion

In order to win an election, candidates need to receive more votes than their opponents. This is usually done by campaigning and getting the support of voters. Candidates also need to make sure that they have a strong base of support within their party. If a candidate does not have a strong base of support, they will likely lose the election. There are a number of factors that can influence how voters will vote. One of the most important factors is party affiliation. Voters who identify with a particular party are more likely to vote for candidates from that party. Another important factor is incumbency. Incumbent candidates usually have an advantage over challengers because they are already well-known and have established a record.

References

Ballotpedia. (2020). California’s 21st Congressional District election, 2020.

Dodd, L. C. (2012). Congress reconsidered. Cq Press.

Herrnson, P. S., Panagopoulos, C., & Bailey, K. L. (2019). Congressional elections: Campaigning at home and in Washington. Cq Press.

Jacobson, G. C., & Carson, J. L. (2019). The politics of congressional elections. Rowman & Littlefield.